Therefore, as judged on the last 10 runnings of the race, a horse rated 149-150 is optimal. Football. Try out the Kelly Criterion Calculator below, but pay careful attention to heavy favorites (i. On 40. You must scale the Kelly output so that the amount you bet is equal to the potential loss. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 66/1 Jazzie to spring a surprise at Fairyhouse;. It just happens to coincide with log-utility. RaceQuant enlisted our team to use machine learning to more accurately predict the outcome of horse races, to advise betting. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. Estimation: 0,25 (25 %) ( (5,00 x 0,25) - 1) / (5,00-1) = 0,0625. All the more recently, the strategy has seen a renaissance, in response to claims that unbelievable investors Warren Buffett and. e. A more general problem was considered in. Kelly’s work focused on optimizing information transmission over a noisy channel. (You can turn a negative ROI into a positive one — at least in games of skill like horse racing — through greater education and better information. Bets must settle before 23:59 on the day they're placed. Based on this equation and outcome, you should only be wagering 10 percent of your bankroll on the proposed wager. Kelly of AT&T Bell Laboratories, the Kelly Criterion is a formula designed to boost betting profits by determining the ideal percentage of capital to be staked on each wagering event. For any queries relating to. the optimal strategy for a single horse and gave an incomplete solution to the problem with. There are. Kelly gambling problem, and relate it to classical Markowitz portfolio optimization. 22 hours ago · Featured Horse Racing. I therefore recommend using the more sophisticated generalised Kelly Criterion wherever possible as it is superior to the simplified Kelly Criterion. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. Cricket. Our approach is to adhere most closely to Kelly’s original ap-proachof maximizing the assets overthe long-term, given a probabilistic distribution at each investment. In relation to sports betting, it’s. 5/2. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. The actual Kelly Standard: A serious Research Of your own Popular Staking Method – current horse racing odds. 6. 25 visually looked very smart when doing his best work at the finish over an inadequate five furlongs at Naas, backing up his ten-length demolition job on. . Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for. If a fully Kelly stake was 8%, then the half-, quarter- and eighth-Kelly stakes would be 4%, 2% and 1% respectively. at Bell Labs, is an optimal sizing of bets, given an initial pool of wealth, to maximize the doubling rate of wealth in a repeated bets scenario. To avoid complicated. The calculator will tell you whether or not you should be betting and how much to stake. Horse Racing Schedule; Harness Racing Schedule; Stakes Races Schedule; Kentucky Derby Prep Races; Racetracks; Odds. Horse Racing Tips. Betfair column. Horse Racing Tips. Finally, I set myself a task to review the betting decisions I make and probabilities I assign. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. And at Caesars, the race took the checkers from NASCAR, which has leaned hard into sports betting as a fan-engagement vehicle. Kelly Criterion. Now live in 25 states, this. I should warn an edge like that would require some serious inside info. Kelly Jr. One of the easiest mistakes to make. Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage. Kelly Staking is in its simplest form, your edge divided by the fractional price your’re backing at. 60 x 1. With hand waving and basic math you can also use it to help guide your investment decisions. evident from looking at the Kelly Criterion graph. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. We investigate the most popular approaches to the problem of sports betting investment based on modern portfolio theory and the Kelly criterion. Kelly Criterion maximizes the wealth in the long-run. If you bet more than 10%, you’re taking on too much risk. 33). BTW, Thorpe, started the counting craze in BJ. 20 or 20%. Note that if the formula is absolutely strictly applied, one would literally never make an. Kelly Criterion Formula. 00. J. In this case: P= 0. By three laps. Although it may appear confusing, it’s actually pretty simple. Kelly criterion as part of a horse racing system article any horse racing system must have a money management component built in this is of paramount importance without this component it is still possible to lose huge sums of money. 1, 2 Try out the Kelly Criterion Calculator below, but pay careful attention to heavy favorites (i. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. The Kelly Criterion is designed for value betting systems. 00 – 1) f* =0. For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039561-R-319411-005. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, we can calculate the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet as: f* = ( (2. It is a formula created by John Kelly to bet with discipline and make sure to always protect yourself, rather than go for the home run each time. I would describe it as the ability to spot and identify the very smallest details of a horse's performance in a race and correctly interpret the significance and. The most common form of value betting calculator. com. However, it can be complicated to use if you are not used to it. B = 1 (decimal odds of 2. Introduction. România. 52 = 0. By inputting the odds, the probability of the event occurring and your betting balance, you will be able to. Let us say that your horse (Let us call him Lucky Punter) gets 4/1 odds (or 5. 60) / 4 = 0. Mode 1: You know the true probability of an outcome and the soft bookmaker odds. 20 or 20% of their bankroll. 00. 33pts. Draw. "16", "name" => "Horse Racing". If you’re looking to maximize investment returns, perhaps you should think like a gambler. B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure (i. It’s ultimately designed to maximize profits and returns across sports betting and is becoming a staple for many when betting on soccer, NFL, and horse racing. 60 to get 0. 00 x 0. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: South Africa and New Zealand to serve up classic final. In horse racing, this is based on the player's own handicapping of the race. In this article, I explain how I think you should properly use the Kelly criterion as applied to long. it did not take long for the gambling community to further develop the formula to apply it to horse racing. Get exclusive views of the. 24 on the Exchange have four decent horses. Horse Racing; Sports; Strategy; Tools; Punting Stars. In horse racing, this is based on the player's own handicapping of the race. 9st 8lbs. Kelly Criterion in detail Introduction; Big-O and little-o; Average Rate of Return;. 60 – 0. Second, notice that betting just a tiny bit more than the Kelly criterion suggests leads to decreased profits with higher risk . A race involves M horses, and is described by a normalized vector of winning probabilities p, an inverse-odds vector r and a gambler strategy b. The first step in using the Kelly Criterion for horse racing betting is to analyze various factors that affect the outcome of the race. If we did this with a stake of £100, when both those orders matched, we would. There are two basic components to the Kelly Criterion. Calculate Bet The formula is as follows: WINNING RATE - LOSING RATE / AVG. The simplified Kelly Criterion has some potential flaws and can give some head-scratching results which are explained in the article above. Mochkovitch. . 2022 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to. The true probability may lie between 40% and 60%, or even 20% and 80%. In order to use it, your selection process must be able to identify the expected probability of your horse winning. Soon after the paper was published the gambling community somehow came across it and found that it had potential as a perfect betting system for horse racing. Named after its inventor, John L. The big man, City Of Troy, is still in the race though and he is the 1/2 1. To see the Kelly formula in action, let’s take an example of a football match where the odds available on the draw are 3. How to Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. NAP. e. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: England to finish on high with Argentina win. In the seminal paper [5], Kelly considered repeated betting on horse races. Based on the Kelly criterion, K% = (1 × 0. The odds are in your favor, but read the following carefully: According to the Kelly criterion your optimal bet is about 5. Most only know a simplified version. Featured Horse Racing. It is. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. The Kelly Criterion was. 60 x 1. The number of bets considered here should also be discussed. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday. 00) and should not include any additional symbols such. to identify how to maximize the long-term growth rate of investments and has since been used successfully. I was thinking of creating a spreadsheet to help me at the track but why do that if someone already has this. Football. 5 which equals a stake of 16. The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets. 5pt EW) settled at BSP: +5. Monks Dream (Ire) Tim Easterby. This means that the optimal size of your bet is 10% of your bankroll. Australia Sports Betting has developed a free staking plan Excel spreadsheet which doubles as a betting tracker. " 15:45. Simply input your betting bankroll, the odds on offer, your. How to Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. Tony McFadden. In another example, you may have a perceived edge of 55% (0. The second is the total win loss ratio, which is made up of the total number of winning trades divided by the total number of losing trades. Vanessa Ryle, Tony Calvin Kevin Blake, Dan Barber and Barry Orr discussed all five glorious days of racing and covered everything you need to know from Tuesday's starting stalls to the finish line. Eat healthy. Daily Racing Multiple. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. 30 June 2010. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing. Popular. She is currently rated 94 and 6/1 6. The Kelly Criterion is well-known among gamblers as a way to decide how much to bet when the odds are in your favor. 5 which equals a stake of 16. 5 Tips for Using the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting. In as vivid a display of a horse seizing defeat from the jaws of victory as one will ever see, Harper's Brook pulled himself up in front, slowing right down and allowing Gloire D'athon to beat him. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. For example: I would like to bet at 20 matches what are playing at the same time. Horse racing tips From Cork on Wednesday 16 September 2020. The course stages racing over distances up to 1850m, with 4 chutes on the back half of the track. This project is a fork (offshoot) of the standard version (v2. 52 Q = 1-0. But as always, the dots connect and your circle of competence will play a major role in determining the probabilities of. where f is the fraction of the bank to stake; b is the odds for the bet (“b to 1”); p is the probability of winning; q is the probability of losi…How does the Kelly criterion calculator work? By entering your bankroll, the odds and your estimated probability of winning, the Kelly Criterion calculator will tell you how much. Aidan O'Brien's unbeaten River Tiber 9/43. Rugby World Cup Final. 8. Horse Racing Tips: Let's have a disco in Wales with Ffos Las Sunday double; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Auteuil Racing Tips: Native's stamina the key to first Grade 1 success; Horse Racing. It means your implied probability is 0. Kelly Jr. However, the coin is biased and has a 52% chance of ending up on heads. Premier. If you bet more than 10%, you’re taking on too much risk. With less than a week to go until this year's Cheltenham Festival, we caught up with. 55) on a specific spread or total priced at -110 (american odds). You can read more about how it works in this Kelly Criterion Wikipedia article. Venera. This means that the bettor should wager 20% of their bankroll on Liverpool to win. Kelly betting systems are ones that use the Kelly criterion. Wednesday - Windsor Castle: Back Barnwell Boy. Kelly Criterion Calculator Excel. Suppose you are betting on a horse race event at the Cheltenham Hurdle, and the odds offered for your horse in a race is 5. When Morphettville first held racing in 1875, with the first race was won by a horse called “Red Gauntlet” owned by the Honourable Thomas Elder who had sold the land to the SAJC to create the Morphettville racecourse. Let us say that your horse (Let us call him Lucky Punter) gets 4/1 odds (or 5. Featured Football. Overall: +33. French Horse Racing Tips from the betting experts at betting. For any queries relating to Betting. while reducing volatility. LEXINGTON, Ky. 1) Regardless of what you make the chance of the horse, 60%, 50%, 40% , 30% if the odds on offer are 4/1 your stake is 20 points. The Kelly Criterion also works for horse race betting. It allowed gamblers to increase the size of their winnings over a long period of time. Add your expected win probability for the selection you have chosen in the cell called “Win Probability”, using values between 0% and 100%. Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin says back 10/1 pair in Aintree's Grand Sefton;. Serial Winners. Minnis. Kelly, Jr in 1956. Brechin Castle cost £165,000 after winning his point in impressive fashion and he created an excellent. Back to winning ways in first-time tongue tie at Hamilton (1m) in July but he's been held in big-field handicaps at Glorious Goodwood and the York Ebor meeting on. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, we can calculate the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet as: f* = ( (2. And at Caesars, the race took the checkers from NASCAR, which has leaned hard into sports betting as a fan-engagement vehicle. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. 8 – 0. Kelly himself was an interesting character: a chain smoking Texan who used to be a fighter pilot in the Navy during World War 2, he was also brilliant researcher. Before addressing your investment strategy, learn about the Kelly criterion and see if it’s a fit for you. 00 being returned. Therefore the Kelly Criterion would recommend you bet 4%. at Bell Labs, is a strategy for the optimal sizing of bets in the repeated bets scenario in his seminal paper¹. 05 2/1 coming off second best to Pied Piper 4. Use this if you have a crystal ball that tells you the true probabilities. Golf. Kelly % = W-[(1-W)/R] Where: W = Winning. This is of paramount importance. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, the bettor would calculate the optimal bet size as follows: f = (0. It was developed in 1956 by John Larry Kelly Jr. It's most useful to determine the size of a position you should take. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 18/1 ex-pointer on rules debut at Stratford; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Lou to give us a gift in Thursday 13/1 Newcastle double. The underlying purpose of the reviewed modifications is to mitigate the. Timeform's Andrew Asquith highlights a Nap, Next Best and Each-Way selection at Beverley on Thursday. The Dewhurst at 14:00 had 33 entries on Monday morning but we are down to 12 now. Lose weight. ple and correct procedure to apply the Kelly strategy for the general case. 50). 52x1 – 0. 8. 8. If the bet is successful, the bettor would win £36 for every £20 wagered. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. Two main concepts in wagering, Kelly criterion and hedging, will be discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039561-R-319411-005. Horse Racing Tips: One drifter and a chaser to back for 48/1 Monday double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 11/8 Adjuvant's flat speed can land Hereford opener; Horse. Bettors, particularly those betting on events with high levels of variance like Horse Racing tend to lean to the cautious side and divide the amount the criterion suggests by three or four up to 20 or 25 depending on swings. Ahead of race day revisit some great memories and test your knowledge by taking the Betfair Chase Quiz. This value should be a number between 0 and 100. THE KELLY CRITERION IN BLACKJACK, SPORTS BETTING, AND THE STOCK MARKET by Edward O. In the seminal paper [5], Kelly considered repeated betting on horse races. Under few conditions, using Monte Carlo simulations with different scenarios we prove that the Kelly criterion beats any other approach in many aspects. 2022 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to. Kelly Criterion And Asset Management. 55)-0. This value should be a number between 0 and 100. Thorp is the real deal, but he's not talking about horse racing. The Kelly Criterion is a famous formula developed by its name-sake John Kelly Jr and is used by many a handicapper and blackjack player. This has been applied to various games, including horse racing. By three laps. A. In his book Commonsense Betting, which is arguably the finest book written on the betting and the mathematics of horse-racing, US author Dick Mitchell wrote about various staking plans. If we replace them in the formula, here’s what you get. In addition to our automated calculator above, you can also download our excel version below. Licence Number: MGA/CL3/454/2008 17th March 2015, Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. Brookhouse. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Featured Rugby. The formula is therefore suggesting that 20% of the portfolio be stake 20% of your bankroll. Your bankroll is $1,000, and you wonder how much you should risk. 80. , discovered the Kelly criterion in 1956 in New Jersey. WITH KELLY. There are two basic components to the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that helps investors and gamblers calculate what percentage of their money they should allocate to each. Get a £5 Free Bet on Multiples - Every Day! Place £20 worth of Multiples or Bet Builders over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £5 bet to use on Multiples. Cheltenham Festival: Expert Betting Advice & Predictions for the 2023 Cheltenham: Cheltenham Races Tips Cheltenham Betting Offers Horse Racing Expert Tips & Advice. Optimal sports betting strategies in practice: an experimental review. and making a $10\%$ return. The formula was developed by Kelly while working at the AT&T Bell. The Kelly Criterion is a method of analyzing your odds and assigning a number to those odds. For standard Kelly betting, set the fractional Kelly betting value to 1. 00. The question arises because it is widely believed that the Kelly criterion is best for betting online, while, in fact, its use is appropriate only if our betting system has been actually proved profitable. Correspondence Address: Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. As much as anything, it is the prospect of Quickthorn getting the lead to himself that is just as attractive as the drop in class that the race represents. The Kelly criterion, which was first published in 1956, was soon adopted by gamblers who were able to use the formula for horse racing. 31% of your bankroll on Real Madrid. The Kelly criterion is a useful tool for making informed decisions about how to allocate capital when betting on horse races, particularly when considering a single type of bet (Benter 1994) -most. Horse Racing Tips: One drifter and a chaser to back for 48/1 Monday double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Paul Nicholls' Ditcheat Diary: Daryl Jacob to ride Bravemansgame in Saturday's. K. Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapper's Corner: Kelly CriterionIn horse racing, this is based on the player’s own handicapping of the race. Daryl Carter's Tips: Chepstow, Warwick and Kempton all. 50. Kelly. 82pts. I think he was right. Kelly Jr. These two factors are then input into the Kelly Criterion equation. Bell and Cover (1988), discuss a game-theoretical optimality of Kelly portfolios. Subsequent to being distributed in 1956, the Kelly criterion was gotten rapidly by players who had the option to apply the formula to horse racing. This is a mathematical formula which tells you how much to bet in any given situation. Jon has been sharing his professional expertise since 2009 and specialises in using objective data analysis and subjective experience of betting built up over more than a decade of professional betting. Enter the odds, which represent the potential payout for winning the bet. If I apply the Kelly Criterion based upon the historical odds of that factor 7/2, instead of true post odds, is that a valid way of applying Kelly? Furthermore, I created an Excel Spreadsheet to analyze my results, and based upon my Kelly formula, it says that I can bet 9. Venera. When we bet the amount that this formula indicates, we say that we are using the full Kelly Criterion . 0 in decimals, or a 20% implied probability of winning) at the Cheltenham Hurdle. It doesn’t take asymmetric utility into account. , 2011), which. The Kelly criterion was used by horse racing gamblers in the late 1950s. 89% of my bankroll on any race (still using the Pace of Horse factor). The Kelly Staking Plan is based on using the ‘Kelly Constant’. Part of Kelly's insight was to have the gambler maximize the expectation of the logarithm of his capital, rather than the expected profit from each bet. In Chapter 5, normal distribution and multinominal logistic regression are introduced in estimating winning probability of each race horse. A simplified definition would describe this method. Thirsk - 15:10 - Back Granny B. The Kelly Criterion – also known as the Kelly Strategy or Kelly Staking Plan – takes elements from fixed, percentage and progressive staking to create somewhat of a hybrid staking plan. 66pts P/L: +210. It’s applicable to any game with an element of chance, such as sports betting and roulette. Betfair, e-mail Copy@betfair. Golf. 16) of our free Excel betting tracker. Then, you divide 0. Recent. She. This is due to the requirement that the gambler commits to a specific outcome of the team game. Kelly Criterion's model is based on a mathematical formula developed by this author in the mid-1950s. 10st 9lbs. K. Its discoverer was John Larry Kelly, Jr . Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non. . Here is the Formula: f*= (bp-q)/b. Enter the probability (%), which represents the likelihood of winning the bet. Don said picking a trifecta winning bet was a test of skill rather than a game of chance. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Horse Racing Tips: Lou to give us a gift in Thursday 13/1 Newcastle double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Take a chance on 20/1 Zhiguli at Ascot this Saturday. Kelly, Jr in 1956. Cricket. com. 40) / 1 = 0. Keep in mind that this is a high percentage and the ideal amount you should bet is 3% of your bankroll or less. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 4/1 Fry up some Ree Okka on Monday;. If you bet less than 10%, you’re not taking full advantage of. The latter corresponds to a specific allocation of the gambler's capital on the M horses: if we denote by C t the gambler's. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. Use this if you have a crystal ball that tells you the true probabilities. Cricket. Essentially the formula gives the optimal size of bets in order to win as much as possible over time while reducing the risk of ruin. CURRENT BALANCE: Insert your current betting balance BOOKMAKER ODDS: The odds you want to back YOUR ESTIMATE (%): Your estimated probability of the selection winning FRACTIONAL KELLY BETTING (FKB): Choose between 0. we will be breaking down everything you need to know about the Kelly criterion betting system and how you can use it to enhance your betting system and strat. Kelly Criterion Horse Racing example. ” Kelly Multiplier The Kelly Criterion: A mathematical formula relating to the long-term growth of capital developed by John Larry Kelly Jr. (You can turn a negative ROI into a positive one — at least in games of skill like horse racing — through greater education and better information. forms of gambling, including sports betting. The Kelly criterion is one model of investment money management, but it’s not the only one. 40) / 1 = 0. WINNING ODDS In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a bet. a betting fund) over the long term by determining the optimal stake on a. What is the Kelly Criterion formula? The basic Kelly Criterion formula is: (bp-q)/b. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. A new formulation of the fractional Kelly strategy, which involves betting a fixed fraction of the amount suggested by the Kelly criterion, is also presented for this type of scenario. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. Horse racing betting is fundamentally an individual pursuit says Tony. The Kelly Criterion is a recognized money management system used extensively in horse and sports betting, and in the stock market. 5) – 60)/2) = 16% of your bank. The first is attributing probability to a positive outcome of a selected bet and the second is a win-loss. The Kelly Criterion – also known as the Kelly Strategy or Kelly Staking Plan – takes elements from fixed, percentage and progressive staking to create somewhat of a hybrid staking plan. scientific gambling method ), is an effective strategy in every sense of the word. Betfair, e-mail Copy@betfair. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. Mode 2: You know the sharp bookmaker odds and soft bookmaker odds. 0. 5. Applying the Kelly criterion without. Charlie Deutsch. Race 2 21:38 Hawthorne - Satiate. Kelly Criterion mathematical equation takes into account your bankroll, your own calculated winning probability of the outcome you are betting on, and the odds available from the bookmaker. The King George V Handicap (15:05) is always a very tough contest to decipher that is chock-full of promising three-year-olds with scope to improve over this longer. For any queries relating to Betting. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies novice chaser to continue trainer's good form at Plumpton; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Moon to. If the downside-case loss is less than 100%, as in the scenario above, a different Kelly formula is required: Kelly % = W/A – (1 – W)/B , where W is the win probability, B is the profit in the event of a win (20%), and A is the potential loss. You are here: Home >> Beginner’s Guide >> The Kelly Criterion Once a decision is has been made to wager money on an event, the next decision is to choose how much of your account balance to wager. Kelly Criterion General Discussion : Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > General Discussion: Kelly Criterion. Golf.